The last few weeks of NFL football have been very kind to the public. Since Week 7 there have been 33 teams that received at least 56 percent of the total bets on the spread. Those 33 teams have gone 25-8 ATS, including 10-3 last week.
We saw chalky favorites like the Panthers, Patriots, Chiefs, Bears and Vikings not just cover, but do so with ease. Carolina beat the Bucs by 14 and the spread by 8 points, and that was the closest margin of the bunch.
So which teams should you back in Week 10 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons.
For a bettor with contrarian tendencies such as myself, this trend hasn't been great for me, though I took advantage of the Chiefs -8.5 last week because I felt it was a bad line, and it proved to be. Instead of being scared of it, however, it just makes me want to be more contrarian than ever before.
I mean, they didn't build all those casinos in the desert because the public keeps winning, did they?
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Last week I bet against the Browns because I felt the line was undervaluing the Chiefs, particularly with all the coaching changes Cleveland was dealing with. This week I think the line isn't giving Cleveland enough credit in this matchup. The Falcons are being overrated after beating up on the Redskins last weekend. Combine that with the Browns getting crushed themselves, and you get this line. Honestly, while I'm writing this on Wednesday, I'd suggest you wait a bit here because I wouldn't be surprised to see this line move to 6 or possibly even 6.5 with how heavy the action is on the Atlanta side.
Still, even if it doesn't, I like the Browns a lot here. The Falcons defense played well last week, but it's still the same unit allowing over 28 points per game in 2018. The Browns will be able to move the ball against it. Falcons 27, Browns 24
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43)
I like the Eagles against the spread here as well, but I'm a bigger fan of the under. The Cowboys have left the friendly confines of Jerry World four times this season and scored a total of 54 points in those four games. It's a bad offense that is worse on the road and is facing a good defense coming off a bye. The biggest reason I'm not as enthusiastic about the Eagles covering the 6.5 is that Dallas has a good defense itself, which makes the under all the more appealing.
Plus these two teams tend to play lower-scoring games. They play twice a season, and the under has gone 7-3 over the last five years, and that includes a 4-1 mark in the previous five games played in Philly. Eagles 23, Cowboys 13
New York Giants (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
Nick Mullens came out of nowhere to tear the Raiders apart last Thursday, and if you want to count on him to do it two weeks in a row, well, you go right ahead. I'll take the points with the Giants instead. Don't get me wrong; it's not that I think the Giants are good or anything. They aren't, but they might be better than the 49ers, and I'm not sure how much of a home-field advantage the Niners get playing in front of an empty stadium.
As far as trends are concerned, San Francisco has been favored in eight games since the beginning of the 2016 season. It has gone 1-7 ATS in those eight games, including 0-5 ATS at home. So, again, if you want to lay points with a 2-7 team on its third-string quarterback, I admire your conviction. I just can't stand alongside you. Giants 27, 49ers 17
SportsLine Bonus Pick
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fitzmagic and the Buccaneers host the Washington Redskins this week, and they're favored by 3 points with the total set at 51.5. I have a strong play for this game that you can read only on my SportsLine page.